Excess capacity has become a prominent contradictions of economic operation in our country. Pv industry over the years has been plagued by overcapacity, the serious influence and restrict the healthy development of this emerging industry. Therefore, it is necessary to in-depth analysis, the correct understanding and to respond effectively to the problem of excess photovoltaic industry, to promote the healthy and orderly development of photovoltaic industry in our country.
Market slowdown highlights
In 2008-2009, driven by polysilicon industry profits, overweight blind construction, lead to polysilicon planning capacity is much higher than the actual market demand, polysilicon market prices also fell sharply, from $400 / kg dropped to $40 in 2009 / kg, the country will also polysilicon industry as industry excess in macroeconomic regulation and control.
2009-2009, the global pv market, especially the European pv market pull, photovoltaic capacity further rapid expansion in China, but due to market growth remain above 70%, industry imbalance between supply and demand contradiction has not been highlighted. In 2012, the global photovoltaic (pv) of new market growth rate is only 6%, global polysilicon production capacity of more than 400000 tons, and the actual production and demand is only 236000 tons and 230000 tons, far lower than capacity. Affected, was forced to shut down 90% of the polysilicon enterprises in our country in 2012. 2011 statistics for 262 pv enterprises in our country, has dropped to 112 in 2012. Even so, built in 2012, our country photovoltaic module production capacity is up to 45 gw, was 700% in 2009. In the market under the condition of sudden slowdown, overcapacity problem focused, prices fell sharply, a serious shortage of capacity utilization, enterprise production and management difficulties.
2015 annual report data from the China association of photovoltaic (pv), clearly shows that our country in the field of polysilicon, wafers, cells, components of excess capacity.
Analyze reason dialectical grasp
Will be 25% of our production capacity beyond market demand in China as in industries with excess capacity, according to data, photovoltaic industry capacity utilization rate is only 60% in 2015. Under the condition of market economy, appropriate of excess capacity can play to the role of the competition mechanism, but the present stage our country part of industry overcapacity is beyond the normal market, will have severe impact on economic growth and smooth running.
Photovoltaic capacity in our country is growing faster, basically have the following reasons:
The pursuit of GDP growth. Large photovoltaic industry investment and a lot of labor, can create the GDP, and to create more employment opportunities, is very popular with local government. Many local governments have the photovoltaic industry as the key to development, provide photovoltaic enterprise, including land, loans, financing, preferential policies, to build a photovoltaic industry base. Some traditional companies are also in the rush to the photovoltaic industry transfer, make use of the traditional business to support the development of the photovoltaic business.
Huge potential for development. As the new energy industry in the global climate change, environmental pollution and fossil energy sources dried up, driven by such factors as broad market prospects for development makes photovoltaic market got the attention of the parties to the capital, promote enterprise expanding capacity.
The technical threshold is not high. Wafers, cells, components, seemingly high-tech product, but after the purchase of equipment to set up the production line. Simple components, in particular, belong to labor intensive labor, low barriers to entry. At the same time, along with the rapid development of semiconductor industry, photovoltaic equipment can quickly realize large-scale production, not only greatly reduce the investment cost of photovoltaic (pv) and the production cost, the investment of pv production line also have certain inverse cycle factors, further promoted the industrial investment.
Technical progress in the sector. Due to technological innovation, in the past five years, the solar cell conversion rates increase more than 0.4% per year on average, makes each cell wattage increased, and then single capacity of ascension. At the same time, the enterprise technical renovation and expanded the production capacity.
Photovoltaic (pv) manufacturing is a typical scale economy effect, can only effectively reduce the cost of expanding scale. Such as polysilicon link, the larger the scale, the lower the unit cost amortization will. Itself at the same time, enterprises have to further expand production capacity and market share to squeeze rival will, it will also lead to overcapacity.
However, photovoltaic industry overcapacity and the general traditional industries with excess capacity also have obvious differences.
Because the current photovoltaic market is still in the early stage of development, the future a long period of time will keep growing, so the current excess capacity does not represent the future will be surplus. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry in China in the global market with strong competitive advantage, has accounted for more than 70% of the world market, so our pv capacity corresponding is the global market, the annual installed capacity compared with photovoltaic capacity in China in the global market, photovoltaic overcapacity is not obvious.
Photovoltaic (pv) manufacturing more production flexibility. Photovoltaic capacity due to the expansion of the main way to expand through with blocks, cell or component production line mainly in construction for the unit, can be adjusted through flexible production line shut down in response to market changes, and the production line investment threshold is not high, a lot of production line equipment in the production of 1-2 years to recover the investment costs, especially in the previous lot of photovoltaic enterprises profitable period already recover the production line investment costs, so the utilization rate of low yield can tolerance is bigger also.
Photovoltaic capacity effectively in order to have a batch of the strength of enterprise cluster. Because of photovoltaic products generally need more than 25 years quality assurance, under the background of excess capacity, customer priority will be to choose to have actual strength, brand, technology, and assets in good condition of enterprise products, in order to ensure photovoltaic power generating capacity. So, for part of the power lack of capacity of enterprise, even with government support, it is hard to gain market recognition, it plays an important role in resolving photovoltaic overcapacity.
With strength and branded business capacity utilization has been at a higher level. Although photovoltaic industry overall capacity utilization rate is low, but some of the advantages of enterprise actual shipments, even more than its capacity, also need a large number of outsourcing contract. In terms of industrial structure, therefore, should be a low-end excess capacity, and high capacity is insufficient.
In fact, the photovoltaic industry overcapacity on the root cause is related to technological innovation and industry policy. A lack of innovation is the core problem of excess capacity. Due to the progress of photovoltaic technology, has a more moderate cannot effectively substitute for the original production capacity so as to eliminate the old production. Subsidy policy to adjust the unpredictable nature of is also the key factors that lead to overcapacity. In the process of to capacity, the local government for the sake of local economic development and ensure the stable, often through various means improper intervention, makes it hard for overcapacity is obtained by the market mechanism self-regulation, photovoltaic industry high non-performing assets, will eventually bring down effective capacity.
Arrange effectively cope with foresight
Solve the problem of excess production capacity should be in full play a decisive role in the market allocation resources better play to the role of the government at the same time, profound grasp market operation rule, strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, timely arranged by strategic and forward-looking.
Specific to the photovoltaic industry, to effectively cope with and solve the problem of excess production capacity, grasp the following several points:
To speed up the implementation of innovation-driven strategy, enhance the level of development of photovoltaic industry. Play a role of the government's guidance, timely improve the "leader" technical standards, by investing in research and development of claim additional deduction, subsidies and tax breaks and other preferential policies to attract more industry funding photovoltaic production enterprises investment in the development of efficient photovoltaic technology. At the same time, actively help enterprises to expand overseas markets, solar photovoltaic power generation, heat utilization industry support enterprises with foreign advanced enterprise in the industry of solar energy grid, batteries, such as energy storage technology to carry out joint research and development of the frontier. Strengthen the photovoltaic industry technology innovation, integrated innovation, application mode innovation and collaborative innovation, a new innovation chain, new industrial chain and chain, create new requirements, create new kinetic energy, improve the level of the industry development.
Reduce government intervention, improving the subsidies and other support policies. Full use of market mechanisms to promote enterprise merger and reorganization. In new energy electricity price subsidies, connected to the grid, photovoltaic (pv) aspects of explicit support policy for poverty alleviation, expand the domestic market demand of photovoltaic equipment, reduce the dependence on the international market. Further improve the mechanism of the photovoltaic subsidies and standard, price policy should be both considered practical factors such as different periods, project construction, and combining with the characteristics of technology, efficiency, brand influence, such as different situations, make different photovoltaic subsidy standards. Formulate reasonable predictable based on industry technology progress, the product market price changes, new pv installations such as indicators of pv electricity cut mechanism, make policy have predictability, avoid sudden change brings to the market and industry policy of a strong shock. For advancing the policy distributed solar energy application. Timely adjust land use tax and land use policy, a clear standard and breaks, allow the use of garden, aquaculture water, inferior farmland construction new complementary photovoltaic power projects. To explore the differentiation financing support. Guide financial institutions to those it has advantage of cost, technology, scale, etc, and the overall strength strong photovoltaic enterprise key technology innovation, mergers and reorganization, "going out" and other key projects, best focused support.
Perfect admittance regulation policy, standardize the order of industrial development. Photovoltaic industry constantly improve the management system, perfect the government service function, strengthen the planning and industrial policy guidance, to strengthen market supervision and management of the industry. The photovoltaic manufacturing specification stated in the conditions continue to implement the "about promoting advanced photovoltaic technology application and the opinions of the industrial upgrading, such as policy documents, and timely announcement list to clean with photovoltaic manufacturing industry codes, actively guide with the market reversed transmission ways, standardize the order of industrial development, promote the backward production capacity out of the market. Give full play to the industry group in strengthening industry self-discipline, popularize advanced technology and management experience, to carry out the statistical monitoring, and studies the role of standards, etc. Strengthen industry services, to establish surveillance system of photovoltaic industry, released in a timely manner for the development of photovoltaic industry scale of production capacity, technological progress, market supply and demand information, guide enterprise investment decision, avoid blind investment behavior, the rush to build the fact communication platform, guiding the coordinated development of photovoltaic industry.